Could the Imperial Japanese Navy reach the Caribbean?

How plausible would it be for the Imperial Japanese Navy to reach the Caribbean during the Second World War?

Only in an extreme counterfactual: either U.S. control of the Panama Canal has collapsed, or the fleet has made an exhausting voyage around South America.

The scenario is explicitly counterfactual rather than a real Japanese operational plan. A fleet using the Panama Canal would first have to overcome American control of the chokepoint, an outcome that would imply a much wider U.S. collapse. The alternative would require crossing the Pacific, rounding South America, and sailing north, leaving the ships in poor condition after an immense voyage. Caribbean defence forces would remain a local obstacle even after the oceanic transit. Chokepoints, distance, maintenance, and regional forces make the imagined deployment hard to sustain.