How soon would Japan lose without Dutch East Indies oil?

If Japan were stopped short of Dutch East Indies oil, would it be defeated by mid-1942 for lack of fuel?

Probably not by mid-1942. Home stockpiles would sustain resistance, but fuel shortages could bring contraction forward and possibly end the war in 1943.

Japan retained home stockpiles and would be unlikely to leave the war voluntarily simply because its expansion stalled. Failure to secure southern oil supplies would nevertheless restrict operations and force earlier conservation and withdrawal. Major fleet movements and the ability to sustain distant conquests would become progressively harder. The suggested result is a 1942 resembling the historical pressures of 1943, with a possible end to the war in 1943 rather than an immediate collapse.