The counterfactual: Japan leaves China in August 1941

The counterfactual begins with a Japanese withdrawal from China in August 1941, at the point when Japan was otherwise preparing for war. Yonai matters because his earlier opposition to the move into French Indochina made him a plausible figure for a less confrontational course. He had warned that German promises carried little weight while the United States remained an immediate Pacific power capable of punishing Japanese expansion. Japan's territorial policy and political leadership would therefore change together as troops came home.