Naval Historywith Dr. Alex

Q&A · 55:30-56:14

Would victory in China have stopped Japan's southern advance?

A counterfactual victory in China does not remove Japan's dependence on imported fuel and strategic raw materials.

Grand StrategyImperial Japanese NavyOilPacific WarSecond Sino Japanese WarSouthern Resource Area
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Question

If Japan had won the war in China by May 1940, would it still have struck south?

Short answer

Probably yes; after consolidating China, Japan would still seek the oil and raw materials needed to reduce its dependence on imports.

Notes

A victory in China by May 1940 would first leave Japan wanting time to consolidate its position. It would not remove the resource motive for advancing south. Fuel, minerals, and other supplies were sought to reduce dependence on imports. The counterfactual therefore changes the sequence of expansion more readily than the underlying strategic demand for resources.