What changes if Japan attacks the Spanish Philippines instead of Russia in 1905?
Short answerBritain must strengthen Singapore and Hong Kong earlier, while Japan gains a position that makes von Spee's later escape far harder.
NotesThe Russo-Japanese War grew from Russian and Japanese expansion colliding in northeast Asia, so a Philippine war requires both that confrontation to ease and Spain to provoke Japan. Once Japan holds the islands, Singapore lies within much more immediate reach and Britain cannot postpone its defenses as easily. Hong Kong and the wider British position in Asia also face a stronger nearby Japanese presence. The position places Japanese forces across Admiral von Spee's likely escape routes at the opening of the First World War.