Many Japanese leaders did not expect a strong chance of winning the Pacific War. They believed Japan was already losing strategically in peacetime, so war appeared as the only gamble that offered any chance of changing the outcome. A Free French Indochina and larger Allied naval presence would worsen the odds. Those disadvantages might still fail to remove the political logic behind the decision. Stronger deterrence therefore does not automatically prevent war in this scenario.
Notable Point · 1:07:24-1:08:24
Why Japan might still choose war despite worse odds
A stronger Allied Far East position might not deter Japan because its leaders saw peacetime trends as defeat and war as their only remaining gamble.