A shorter Japan-first war built around blockade

The loss of the carrier striking force leaves Japanese troops in the Dutch East Indies vulnerable to isolation even if some landings succeed. A land campaign through Malaya and Indochina may follow, but Japan no longer faces the depleted Allied forces it defeated historically. The coalition would probably emphasize Britain's preferred blockade strategy, advancing toward Hong Kong and Weihaiwei to gain naval and bomber bases close to Japan. Whether Europe or Japan receives the first invasion then depends on Germany's condition under bombing from Norway and any simultaneous war with the Soviet Union.