What if Japan invaded Hawaii instead of the Philippines and captured Pearl Harbor's ships and fuel?
Short answerAn immediate decisive charge is unlikely because the Navy must replace captured commanders and concentrate its remaining forces.
NotesThe premise gives Japan a successful invasion of Hawaii, with wrecked ships in Pearl Harbor and the oil stocks still in their tanks. The capture could also remove much of the American naval command there and take surviving officers prisoner. The United States would need time to reconstitute its command and assemble forces before attempting a counterstroke. That necessary delay makes an immediate rush into Japan's desired decisive battle unlikely. Political leaders could still demand a reckless response, but the naval recovery itself would take time.