Naval Historywith Dr. Alex

Q&A · 2:42:31-2:44:08

Japan might buy the Philippines instead of invading them

Removing the Spanish-American War does not remove Japan's disputes with Russia, while cash-strapped Spain may prefer a negotiated Philippine sale to a new Pacific war.

Alternate HistoryAnglo-Japanese AllianceImperial Japanese NavyPhilippinesRusso Japanese WarSpanish Empire
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Question

If the Spanish-American War never occurred, would Japan attack the Spanish Philippines instead of Russia in 1905?

Short answer

Not necessarily; Japan's conflict with Russia still has strong causes, and Spain might simply sell the Philippines to Japan rather than fight to retain them.

Notes

The Russo-Japanese War grew from concrete conflicts over Korea, China, and the Kuril region rather than from an arbitrary Japanese search for a target. By 1905 Japan also had an alliance with Britain that constrained possible French intervention on Russia's behalf. If Spain still held the Philippines, Japan might pursue both its Russian dispute and Philippine acquisition rather than substitute one war for the other. Purchase is the likelier route because Spain could be willing to sell a costly and difficult colony, turning an expected confrontation into a very expensive negotiation.