The counterfactual starts on 1 January 1942 and permits arguments that were already being debated at the time. Spending has no tight ceiling, but it must remain within plausible national choices rather than become unlimited. A decision-maker can favor a contemporary argument because it fits a preferred approach to warfare. Those preferences may themselves reflect later historical reading, so complete separation from hindsight remains doubtful.
Chapter · 0:13-1:16
The Allied naval crisis in January 1942
The exercise asks what the major Allied navies could still change on 1 January 1942 after earlier policy choices and wartime losses had narrowed their options.