January 1939 is a dense point of divergence because simultaneous crises offer several plausible directions for policy. Historically, the Tsingtao outcome encouraged a belief that British naval power had contained Japan for the moment. The January 1940 Asama Maru incident could reinforce that confidence, before the events of December 1941 showed how fragile Far Eastern stability was. Moving from deterrence to open war changes the order in which Britain learns lessons and commits resources.
Notable Point · 56:14-57:55
The January 1939 paradox changes British strategic perception
Because January 1939 contains flashpoints in Europe and the Far East, a different outcome at Tsingtao could reverse Britain's belief that Asia was stable enough to permit concentration on Europe.