An early Italian exit depends on defeat before German intervention

What could force Italy out of the war early in this scenario?

Victory in North Africa and the Mediterranean could force Italy out before German intervention, while German anti-shipping losses would be difficult to replace.

Early Allied victories in North Africa and the Mediterranean could help force Italy out of the war. Timing matters because the opportunity is greater before German troops are stationed in Italy. German anti-shipping air forces would also struggle to replace heavy losses. The Luftwaffe was not organized to sustain a large specialized anti-shipping force, limiting its ability to compensate for the naval situation.