A war with Italy could force Mediterranean trade onto the much longer route around Africa. Italian bases in East Africa already lay beyond the Mediterranean, while Italian connections in South America complicated assumptions about containing the threat. Surface raiders could exploit the diverted shipping. Japan also posed a raider problem if a merchant ship reached the Indian Ocean and then took up commerce raiding. These possibilities created a need to sustain naval aviation far from the principal fleet concentration.
Notable Point · 12:55-14:45
Italian bases and raiders threatened trade beyond the Mediterranean
Closing the Mediterranean would divert British trade around Africa, exposing longer routes to raiders beyond the expected fleet battle.