How Italian neutrality could transform the Mediterranean war

What changes if Ciano takes power in 1939 and keeps Italy out of the Second World War?

Britain avoids a major Mediterranean war and can redeploy forces, but neutral Italy may weaken the blockade by trading with Germany.

In this counterfactual, Galeazzo Ciano takes power in 1939 and delays entry because Italy is unprepared and Germany has begun war before the expected timetable. Staying out during France's defeat could lead to continued neutrality, removing the immediate North African and Greek campaigns. Britain could use the Mediterranean Fleet to watch Vichy French forces, reducing the need for Force H and avoiding the Taranto operation. Mediterranean access would also ease movement toward the Far East. Germany, however, could import goods through neutral Italian ports and carry them north by rail, making Britain's blockade harder to enforce. Attempting to extort territory from Vichy France would endanger Ciano's neutrality by aligning Italy more openly with the Axis.