An early Italian political collapse creates choices for Germany. Invading Italy could turn it into an Allied partner if Germany failed to win quickly, with a possible Free French advance through the Alps toward France. Accepting Italian neutrality would remove Italian naval support for operations against Crete and the Ionian Islands. An invasion of mainland Greece is considered unlikely in that case. A Mediterranean campaign largely over by the middle of 1941 is therefore plausible.
Notable Point · 1:55:28-1:57:32
Italian neutrality could end the Mediterranean war by mid-1941
If Mussolini falls, Germany's least damaging option may be to accept a neutral Italy rather than invade and risk pushing it into the Allied camp.