Italy's mountain fronts could leave the war at a stalemate even after its rearmament. Defeating Italy would probably require the Allies to undertake amphibious operations. Germany faces a different danger if it is still fighting Britain and France when Stalin advances through Poland. A Soviet offensive could be presented as defending Polish independence while installing Soviet-controlled governments behind the advancing army. A more modern Soviet force, including larger numbers of T-34s, would make a two-front war particularly difficult for Germany. The Soviet decision remains conditional: a later reply suggests that Stalin's wish to act as a great power could compete with his interest in watching the other powers weaken each other.
Notable Point · 3:48:29-3:49:41
An Italian stalemate and Soviet intervention could widen Germany's war
Italy could remain in a land stalemate unless the Allies undertook amphibious operations, while Soviet intervention could open another front against Germany.