Iranian proxy pressure, shipping costs, and Western rearmament

What is Iran trying to achieve through the current proxy conflict?

It may seek to raise costs, weaken outside engagement, and serve domestic narratives, but the campaign also risks stimulating the Western rearmament Iran would prefer to avoid.

Iran's hoped-for effects differ from the outcomes its leaders should reasonably expect. Proxy attacks can raise shipping and insurance costs, support domestic narratives of resistance, and encourage outside powers to disengage from the region. The campaign can also produce the opposite result by demonstrating that escort capacity, missile defense, and warship numbers have fallen too far. Type 31 and Type 26 modifications and continued Type 83 debate illustrate how operational pressure can revive procurement. The strategic risk for Iran is that short-term disruption helps reverse the Western disarmament it would prefer to continue.