Iran's capacity for a nuclear test in July 2025

Would Iran test a nuclear weapon despite the likely Western and Israeli response?

The July 2025 assessment is that Iran lacked the immediate capability to test a weapon and first faced damage to its program and doubts about surviving personnel.

On 6 July 2025, Alex Clarke judged that Iran was far from being able to test a nuclear weapon, even if its leadership wanted to do so. He attributed that position to significant damage to the program. He also speculated that Iranian officials would question whether surviving personnel had escaped targeting because they were considered unimportant or because they were Israeli agents. Resolving those suspicions, in his assessment, would take priority over an immediate test.