How would an American and allied attack on Iran differ in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s?
Short answerAmerican and allied forces would rapidly overwhelm Iran's earlier conventional forces; its later missile magazines and small submarines make a loss-free operation in confined waters impossible to guarantee.
NotesThe conventional balance in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s strongly favours the United States and its allies, with American attacks on Iranian naval forces in the 1980s supplying the historical comparison. The June 2025 assessment distinguishes those earlier forces from Iran's later accumulation of shore-based missiles and small submarines suited to confined coastal waters. Their numbers and magazine depth make a loss-free operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz impossible to guarantee, even for well-trained forces with suitable ships. Striking submarines in harbour and weapons in storage before they deploy could reduce that danger. A successful littoral combat ship programme would improve the available force without removing the risk created by so many potential threats.