Scapa Flow's neglect formed part of the Royal Navy's wider interwar planning problem. Japan, followed by Italy, appeared a more likely naval opponent through much of the 1920s and early 1930s, while renewed war with Germany seemed implausible to many observers until Hitler's rearmament advanced. The Ten Year Rule encouraged expectations that warning time would precede a major conflict, but it did not itself require the abandonment of basic base maintenance. Admiralty choices favoured preserving ships useful in any theatre over fortifying every possible base, leaving an assumption that shore defences could be upgraded during a future crisis. War arrived before that preparation was complete, exposing the danger of treating uncertain geography as a reason to defer readiness everywhere.
Chapter · 43:05-46:40
Threat forecasts, the Ten Year Rule, and neglected bases
Interwar planners expected danger first from Japan and Italy, but the uncertainty of the next war made neglecting Scapa Flow and other imperial bases a costly gamble.