The counterfactual retains the Washington Treaty and the Wall Street Crash rather than rewriting the entire interwar settlement. Its political change is a more interventionist response to economic crisis in both Britain and the United States, represented by Alfred E. Smith and Stanley Baldwin. Changing leaders alone would not guarantee escort orders because the historical governments still failed to exploit the exemption. The scenario therefore depends on an affirmative procurement choice: legal permission to build escorts has little effect unless governments are prepared to fund them.
Chapter · 3:13-4:36
Interventionist economics underpins the treaty counterfactual
The equitable-treaty scenario assumes governments willing to answer the Wall Street Crash with public investment, including defense construction that sustains employment and industrial capacity.