Why the Indian Ocean raid may never occur

Could Japan still launch an Indian Ocean raid in this scenario?

Only after taking the Philippines, Malaya, Singapore, and the Dutch East Indies, successes the delayed-war scenario makes much harder.

The raid depends on a chain of earlier operational and logistical victories. If Japan cannot secure the necessary bases and routes, it cannot project the same force into the Indian Ocean. The stronger Allied position in Southeast Asia therefore matters before any later carrier raid can be considered.