Why an Indian civil war in 1908 would fragment politics

Who might win if India collapsed into civil war in 1908?

Britain could probably contain a divided revolt, but stronger princely states and damaged imperial authority could hasten withdrawal and make later Indian unity less likely.

The outcome depends on what kind of civil war develops. A participant suggests that Russia could gain strategically from Britain being distracted or removed, while Alex doubts Russia's capacity after the Russo-Japanese War and expects Britain to reinforce its position. He treats a divided conflict as more likely to give Britain factions to support and princes to bargain with than to create a united independence movement. A larger rebellion could leave Britain holding only part of India, including a southern foothold. Even a British military success could damage imperial authority and accelerate withdrawal. More powerful princes could then direct the movements they financed, making later independence more fragmented. The comparison with later periods also stresses that Gandhi had not yet returned and the First World War had not yet brought home veterans with modern combat experience and weapons.