Why an independent Philippines would still need naval partners

If the Philippines had become independent after the Spanish-American War, would Japan eventually have seized it?

Foreign basing agreements could deter intervention, while isolation and disorder would leave openings for Japan or another colonial power.

In this counterfactual, independence after the Spanish-American War can survive if basing agreements give another navy a reason to defend the Philippines. American annexation is therefore only one of the arrangements considered. An isolated state that descended into disorder would be vulnerable to powers claiming to restore security on a valuable sea route. Japan is one possible intervening power, alongside Germany, Britain, France, and the Netherlands. The outcome depends on the security settlement accompanying independence.