An early peace would follow a much shorter period of battlefield loss than the settlement reached after 1918. The counterfactual does not assume that the Allies would remove the Kaiser or dismantle Austria-Hungary in the same way. Germany would have been defeated primarily at sea, without Allied armies occupying or advancing onto German territory. That distinction could produce a different domestic explanation for defeat and a different European political order. Tirpitz and the Imperial German Navy would be obvious scapegoats because the fleet-building program had challenged Britain and then failed to protect Germany's position.
Notable Point · 1:23:44-1:25:45
How a naval defeat might reshape a 1915 peace
A German defeat at sea in 1915 could end the war without producing Versailles, the Kaiser's removal, or the breakup of Austria-Hungary.