Why a peer war creates an escort-numbers crisis

How viable are merchant fleets in a major war, and how many escorts would be needed to protect them?

A peer war would create a severe escort shortage, making large numbers of uncrewed or minimally crewed protective vessels increasingly necessary.

The strain of Red Sea protection missions at the time of the November 2024 recording offers a lower-end warning about a peer conflict. Merchant ships are large, numerous, and vulnerable, while a capable enemy can threaten them with far more sophisticated weapons. Existing navies cannot simply produce enough conventional crewed escorts at short notice. Future convoy forces may depend heavily on rapidly built uncrewed or minimally crewed craft, even though weapons safety and regulation keep those systems expensive.