What changes if Japan discovers enormous, accessible oil deposits in Hokkaido in 1914?
Short answerJapan gains economic independence and leverage, making indirect control of China more plausible and war with the United States less likely.
NotesSaudi-scale oil discovered in Hokkaido in 1914 would remove much of Japan's vulnerability to imported fuel and make it an exceptionally valuable British ally. Export revenue could stabilize the Japanese economy and fund other industrial development. Japan would still seek resources and influence in China, but it could rely more heavily on client states, economic dependence, and periodic coercion instead of full invasion. Without the same oil crisis, a deliberate war against the United States and the Western Allies becomes much less likely.