Q&A · 21:58-26:25

Could German backing deter a war against Spain?

The second half of the Spanish counterfactual tests whether dynastic ties and overseas German squadrons would change the risks of attacking Spain.

Question

How would a Hohenzollern Spain affect geopolitics leading up to the First World War?

Short answer

German connections might deter or complicate a Spanish-American war, but intervention is uncertain and the longer-term effect on the First World War cannot be settled.

Notes

A Hohenzollern monarchy could make Spain a less isolated target in a confrontation with the United States. The panel questions whether Germany or Austria would actually intervene, and whether Germany could move forces far enough to matter. German ships already serving overseas, including the East Asiatic Squadron, are offered as a complication for an American campaign against Spanish possessions. Intervention could also protect a German political investment in the Spanish monarchy, without requiring sympathy for Spain's interests. Spain's finances would still depend on the territories it had acquired. A different Spanish-American War is conceivable, while consequences for the First World War remain much less certain.