Skirmisher, Scarborough, and uncertain intelligence

Henry Oliver's postwar accusation sits against Ballard's own operational circumstances during the December 1914 raid. Oliver alleged that Ballard ignored definite orders to send two Hartlepool submarines out before dawn and thereby lost a chance to torpedo a German battlecruiser. Room 40 indicated that something was intended, but the warning passed to the East Coast commander did not tell him exactly what or where. Ballard judged that the severe weather could destroy his weak submarines, torpedo boats, and destroyers before they met an enemy, so he withheld them without more definite information. When the attack began, he put to sea in Skirmisher with eight torpedo boats, but conditions forced the smaller craft back while the cruiser continued alone. The episode exposes both a staff-command disconnect and the burden of making decisions when intelligence officers are effectively betting other people's lives.