A devastating British carrier attack on Taranto could inspire a German attempt to strike Scapa Flow in the same way. The conjecture is that Hitler would press for that imitation, rather than the German high command originating it. Resources diverted to the carrier would help Britain indirectly by slowing U-boat growth. Royal Oak would probably still be sunk by a submarine in this scenario. Her loss would remain serious, but earlier King George V-class replacements would reduce its strategic effect. Britain could have three new battleships while completing the remaining pair more slowly, or pursue all five.
Notable Point · 1:16:50-1:17:47
A stronger Taranto strike could prompt a Scapa Flow carrier plan
A German attempt to imitate Taranto could divert resources toward carriers, while earlier British replacements reduced the strategic impact of Royal Oak's loss.