Do counterfactuals take too much attention away from real naval history?
Short answerThey can, but tightly grounded counterfactuals are useful when they illuminate real capabilities, cancelled choices, and the risks created by short-term decisions.
NotesReal history supplies the strongest context, but disciplined counterfactuals can still teach. The closest cases involve ships ordered and cancelled, operations that nearly occurred, or small errors that changed an available choice. These scenarios test what a missing carrier, strike, or force package could have done without treating every imagined outcome as equally plausible. Their value lies in explaining capability, grand-strategic tradeoffs, and risk management.