Historical memory and resistance to European federation

One participant expects a major war to drive Europe toward federation. Alex Clarke doubts that external pressure would overcome memories of Soviet and Warsaw Pact control among some member states. He also invokes Portugal's experience with Spain as an example of a memory that can outlast the original union by centuries. His preferred Brexit alternative is membership of the European Economic Area, preserving economic agreements without the same political commitment. He attributes concern about other countries seeking that arrangement to a conversation with an unnamed person involved in negotiations. This is his account of resistance to closer union, challenged by the argument that a sufficiently severe crisis could change those preferences.