What if Admiral Ingenohl had continued toward Warrender's squadron on 16 December 1914?
Short answerGermany might damage or defeat the exposed British force, but Warrender could conduct a fighting retreat while Jellicoe concentrated; German losses and Britain's faster replacement program could turn a tactical win into a strategic Pyrrhic victory.
NotesIn this counterfactual, Warrender's Second Battle Squadron could maintain formation during a fighting retreat while Jellicoe brought the Grand Fleet south. Beatty's battlecruisers, Goodenough's light cruisers, and the Harwich Force would complicate a German attempt to overwhelm the battleships quickly. The High Seas Fleet would have to leave slower units behind to keep pace with the British force. Its local superiority in capital ships would not remove the danger from the more evenly matched cruisers and destroyers. Even a German victory could therefore involve losses that Britain would replace more quickly.