Hawaii's value in this counterfactual comes chiefly from its central Pacific location. One suggested chain of alternatives runs from an American takeover to German or Japanese intervention, with Britain potentially acting to forestall France. These are speculative alternatives, and foreign takeover is not treated as inevitable. Britain's interest is harder to explain commercially because its main imperial trade links face India and the Indian Ocean; the comparison also invokes the later Suez route. British Pacific trade is comparatively limited in this argument. Before the Panama Canal, a voyage onward to the Atlantic requires rounding South America and negotiating difficult capes and weather. The proposed royal guarantee supplies a reason for commitment even where commercial incentives are weak.
Chapter · 9:53-12:08
Hawaii matters because of where it sits
Hawaii's central Pacific position explains the imagined competition for the islands, while Britain's trade routes make its own commercial motive less obvious.