What if Hawaii had voluntarily joined the British Empire to avoid takeover, and how would that affect Royal Navy and US Navy strategy?
Short answerIt would alter Pacific logistics and remove one dispute while creating another, with the United States more dependent on and more suspicious of British positions.
NotesThe outcome depends on when Hawaii seeks British protection and what outside threat makes the arrangement attractive. A loose protectorate could preserve domestic rule while placing foreign policy and naval access within the British system, but early nineteenth-century arrangements differed from later dominion status. Kamehameha's determination to unite an independent Hawaii produces a disagreement about the premise. One interpretation rules out accession during his lifetime because it conflicts with that aim. The competing interpretation holds that credible French or American pressure could make a British arrangement the least damaging choice available to a pragmatic ruler. British access would provide a useful watering and coaling position while increasing American fears of strategic enclosure. Expansion toward the Philippines could then make the United States more dependent on British coal and ports along the route.