This counterfactual pairs seizing Hawaii after Pearl Harbor with damaging the Panama Canal locks, a combination said to offer Japan a chance to prolong the war. Because Japan expected to be outproduced, the proposed advantage was temporary control over the time and direction of an American counteroffensive. Hawaiian infrastructure might also have supported reconnaissance, submarine harassment, and attacks toward the US West Coast. The operation would have been a major stretch and offered only a chance to prolong the war, rather than assured Japanese victory. Recent Allied evacuations at Namsos, Dunkirk, Cherbourg, and Crete show why assuming an easy later withdrawal from an isolated objective was unsafe.
Notable Point · 27:41-30:44
A Hawaii counterfactual asks how Japan could shape the US advance
A clearly labeled counterfactual argues that holding Hawaii might have forced the United States to return along a predictable axis, giving Japan a better chance to concentrate.