Harwood predicts Graf Spee's River Plate move

Harwood could not track Graf Spee continuously, so he inferred the raider's choices from geography and purpose. A run home risked interception by Force K and the Home Fleet, while the rich traffic around the River Plate offered the conspicuous success a commerce raider might seek. He therefore concentrated Exeter, Ajax, and Achilles at the likely target instead of chasing the last reported position. HMS Cumberland, his strongest cruiser, was unavailable in the Falklands for self-maintenance, illustrating that commanders fight with ships actually ready at the decisive moment rather than the force assigned on paper. Graf Spee's avoidance of heavy cruisers also reflected the raider's strategic vulnerability: damage that could not be repaired abroad might make escape impossible.