Could the Ezo Republic have survived with Kotetsu?

What if the shogunate had received the ironclad Kotetsu before the imperial forces?

The Ezo Republic would likely have survived longer because the imperial navy lacked an equivalent ship, potentially forcing a negotiated and more balanced political settlement.

The Ezo Republic would probably have survived for a meaningful period if the shogunate had received Kotetsu first. Without an equivalent ironclad, the imperial side would have struggled to gain the sea control needed to retake Hokkaido by force. The ship's importance included its ability to protect an isolated rival government from amphibious conquest. Continued Ezo survival could have produced negotiations through Tokugawa Yoshinobu and a council of daimyo. With strong British influence, that council might have evolved into an upper chamber alongside an elected parliament. The resulting Japan might have distributed political power more broadly instead of leaving Satsuma, Choshu, and Tosa dominant for decades.