With equal per-gun loading rates, fifteen guns produce more fire than twelve, making the larger battery attractive to designers seeking a mathematical advantage. The argument is linked to pre-Tsushima predictions that counted Russian heavy guns without adequately accounting for Japanese coordination and salvo practice. Advocates of numerical models could preserve their theory by arguing that better Russian salvo fire would have converted the gun-count advantage into victory. Quantification offers an appealing sense of control over war, but organization and execution can overturn the arithmetic.
Notable Point · 1:13:12-1:14:36
Gun numbers, salvo fire, and the mathematics of war
The case for fifteen guns rests on cumulative fire, but Tsushima warns that gun totals alone cannot explain combat power.