The scale of a Guadalcanal defeat depends on what happens to the First Marine Division. An evacuation that saves most of its personnel differs sharply from a force left cut off. Surrender or destruction of the division would remove troops who could otherwise take part in later operations. Any claim about how far the defeat delays the war therefore needs to specify whether the force escapes.
Notable Point · 51:16-51:47
Evacuating the First Marine Division versus losing it
A retreat that preserves the First Marine Division would have different consequences from its surrender or destruction at Guadalcanal.