Why nuclear powers can still stumble into major war

Is a large war between nuclear-armed powers still possible?

Yes. Deterrence is powerful, but misread concessions, incompatible expectations, and poor signaling can still push states across an opponent's unknown threshold.

Leaders can misunderstand an opponent's limits even when both sides recognize that escalation would be catastrophic. Repeated concessions may be interpreted as proof that further pressure is safe rather than as efforts to avoid war. The pre-Pacific-War relationship between Japan and the United States shows how incompatible expectations can harden through negotiation. Nuclear weapons make the consequences worse, but they do not guarantee that diplomacy will correctly communicate the point at which the other side will fight.