Q&A ยท 18:47-19:17

When would the powers intervene in another independence crisis?

A Sweden-Norway counterfactual shows that intervention would turn on whether Germany or another rival tried to profit from the crisis.

Question

Would the great powers have intervened if Sweden had tried to retain Norway by force in 1905?

Short answer

It would depend chiefly on whether Germany or another rival tried to exploit the crisis and upset the balance of power.

Notes

The answer applies Navarino's coalition logic to the dissolution of the Swedish-Norwegian union. Great powers would not intervene automatically simply because Sweden tried to hold Norway by force. The decisive question would be whether Germany or another rival attempted to turn the conflict into a strategic gain. Such opportunism could then draw Britain, France, and Russia into a balancing response.