The imagined French decision follows the attack on Port Arthur and combines alliance loyalty with an expectation of an easy victory over Japan. Confidence in great-power status encourages the assumption that France and Russia can determine the outcome. France could read British promises of support as diplomatic encouragement that would stop short of war, partly because French friendship matters against Germany. That calculation underestimates Britain's substantial naval strength in 1904, before the later dreadnought competition. French intervention therefore requires a misjudgment of British interests and resolve.
Notable Point · 26:34-29:00
How France could misread Britain's willingness to fight
The intervention scenario depends on France expecting an easy victory and assuming Britain will value French friendship more than its Japanese commitment.