The final consequences remain open, especially how an agreement with a Yonai-led Japan would change Roosevelt's choices and the wider British war effort. A peaceful Pacific could alter the allocation of British forces in the Mediterranean and Atlantic and remove a major route by which the United States entered the global war. Roosevelt would also face a Japanese government that had delivered concessions and defeated its most aggressive domestic opponents. Germany and Italy might resent Japan stepping back from the Tripartite Pact, but neither could readily project enough naval power to compel the Imperial Japanese Navy back into line.
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How a peaceful Japan changes the wider war
The closing question broadens the counterfactual to the Mediterranean, Atlantic, American policy, and the limits of German and Italian power in East Asia.