A northern war creates global alliance uncertainty

The scenario extends beyond the North Atlantic because ships and political attention are globally distributed. Japan's response would affect American freedom of action in the Pacific, while recent Sino-Soviet border clashes made China's alignment uncertain despite the opening begun under Nixon. Beijing might remain neutral, side with Moscow, or exploit the crisis against Taiwan, and Cuba or states in South America could create further demands. NATO restraint near the prospective front could meanwhile give a Soviet leadership already committed to war extra time to manoeuvre, while more distant Allied commands could prepare with less risk of appearing provocative.