The counterfactual gives Germany two unattractive opening choices. Attacking Heligoland risks the decisive fleet defeat described in the preceding watch point, but refusing battle leaves the fortress controlling the useful North Sea approaches. The High Seas Fleet could remain in harbour or operate mainly in the Baltic, yet it would have no easy path to repeat the historical sorties that led to Jutland. Reaching the North Sea through the Danish straits would expose German movements to neutral observation and British interception. The Royal Navy might consequently receive no great North Sea battle at all, producing strategic British control alongside deep operational frustration.
Notable Point · 1:57:47-1:59:15
What if Germany refuses the battle?
Avoiding an assault preserves German ships but leaves the High Seas Fleet confined to the Baltic behind a close British blockade.