The submarine programme that could reshape Britain's war

How would Britain fare if Germany neglected submarines for surface ships?

Much better; the reverse scenario, an early mass U-boat programme, would make the war substantially more dangerous.

Surface construction could not impose the same sustained economic pressure on British shipping. Britain had already ordered Flower-class corvettes and Hunt-class escorts, but an early German effort matching its 1943-44 submarine intensity could outrun that preparation. Conversely, abandoning submarines leaves the empire with far fewer merchant losses and a stronger post-war position. Programme timing, not merely submarine design, as the decisive variable.