Losing Scharnhorst and Gneisenau could push German naval policy in several directions. Blaming the defeat on missing air cover might encourage completion of Graf Zeppelin and a later raid with Bismarck and Tirpitz. Germany could instead concentrate on submarine warfare much earlier in 1941. Renewed commitment to H-class battleships would consume material also needed by the U-boat arm and Operation Barbarossa. The choice would determine whether the losses prompted more investment in large warships or a retreat from surface raiding.
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Possible German responses to a failed surface raid
A major raider loss could shift German choices among surface ships, a carrier and submarines.