An alternate commander cannot be inserted as though the German navy would ignore the change. German planners profiled Beatty and built some expectations around the way he commanded the battlecruiser force. A Sturdee appointment early enough to become well known would therefore alter how the High Seas Fleet planned its own operations. The Falklands campaign supplies a comparison: British planning there was influenced by a detailed profile of an Argentine general that proved to describe a different officer with the same name. The example makes command intelligence part of the scenario's causal chain and helps explain why the divergence must be timed carefully.
Notable Point · 8:16-11:11
German command profiling constrains the divergence
German operational planning was shaped partly by expectations about Beatty, so replacing him too early would change enemy assumptions as well as British command.