The distinction drawn here treats risk as an enduring feature of geography, strategic position, or national vulnerability. Threat concerns the actions and capabilities of other actors, which can become more or less hostile. Those definitions explain why a stable geographic problem does not guarantee a stable requirement for a particular ship. A 30-year programme also spans changing governments and repeated legislative decisions. The concern is how to maintain a useful production plan while allowing for changes in the forces and relationships it must address.
Notable Point · 2:11:26-2:12:45
Geographic risks and changing threats in a 30-year fleet plan
Long procurement plans must distinguish enduring geographic vulnerabilities from changes in other states' behaviour.